Should Governments Encourage Population Growth?

Jeffrey Miron

Politicians on both sides of the aisle, and much popular opinion, believe the government should subsidize having children. The latest such salvos come from Republican vice-presidential candidate JD Vance and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris; both recently endorsed major hikes in the child tax credit (CTC).

Recent Cato blogs by Adam Michel, Vanessa Calder, and Ryan Bourne explain in detail why the CTC is a misguided policy. In brief, having children is a private choice about how to spend one’s time and money, so policy should not intervene barring a compelling case that population growth generates beneficial spillovers. Such an effect is possible (more people might mean more innovation, which then gets shared widely), but harmful spillovers are just as plausible (crowding, pollution, GHG emissions).

At the same time, policy should not raise the costs of having children (e.g., via overregulation of child care or land use). The only role for government is to get out of the way.

This article appeared on Substack on August 19, 2024.